Hatching a plan to protect your nest egg

In this economic environment of low interest rates, there have recently been a number of articles published about how much retirees can annually withdraw from their investment portfolio without depleting their nest egg. Opinions vary among financial professionals, but the general consensus appears to be 4 percent.

In other words, retirees with $100,000 in their nest egg could withdraw $4,000 (4 percent) without worrying too much about depleting their nest egg. Of course, this is an oversimplified method of determining your annual investment income, but it is a useful guideline.

That being said, while I consider withdrawing four percent to be a helpful benchmark, I believe that strictly following this method could possibly turn out to be a mistake.

For example, what if a retiree’s entire nest egg was in a safe, but low-yielding bank account? In that case, withdrawing 4 percent from a $100,000 account would more than likely put the value in year two below the initial $100,000.

Then, in year two, a 4 percent withdrawal from $96,000 would result in income of less than $4,000. Continuing to follow this method will result in decreasing annual income until or unless interest rates suddenly spiked up.

In a similar fashion, if a retiree had his or her nest egg invested strictly for growth, the market’s performance in recent years should have created an increase in the value of the nest egg. The result of that, of course, would also be a slight increase in the amount of annual income withdrawn, utilizing the 4 percent strategy.

Again, I feel that the 4 percent withdrawal strategy is a helpful guideline. Nonetheless, as a financial adviser, I think simply focusing on how much you can withdraw every year might cause you to overlook a very important factor.

Before I explain, let’s set the table. As I’ve written many times, most retirees would be best served by maintaining a diversified, well-balanced portfolio. What I’m concerned about for my readers and clients more than the 4 percent withdrawal rule is the sequence of investment returns.

Looking at historical data from 1989 through 2008, the unmanaged Standard and Poor’s 500 Index had an average rate of return of 10.36 percent. Back then, interest rates were also higher, so for example purposes, instead of withdrawing four percent annually, let’s withdraw 5 percent.

One of the best years in this 20-year cycle was a positive annual return of 31.6 percent. The worst year saw a negative annual return of 37 percent. If the negative 37 percent were in the first year, a retiree would run out of money in year nineteen.

If, on the other hand, the negative 37 percent were in year twenty of the mathematical cycle, the retiree would still have a significant nest egg.

In other words, it’s the early years of retirement income that are the most critical. It’s crucial for a retiree to avoid an immediate downturn to his or her nest egg. It’s crucial to keep a close eye on your returns, and adjust your withdrawal percentage accordingly.

The debate over what the proper amount a retiree can withdraw may continue indefinitely. In my mind, however, based on history, what’s far more important is the sequence of returns and avoiding an early tumble in your nest egg.